LIVE UPDATES: Army Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti assumed command of NATO’s Allied Command Operations today, and spoke of the threat from a “resurgent Russia.”
Welcome to our column, Russia Update, where we will be closely following day-to-day developments in Russia, including the Russian government’s foreign and domestic policies.
The previous issue is here.
Recent Analysis and Translations:
– Does it Matter if the Russian Opposition Stays United?
– Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov Has Invented A Version Of History To Meet His Needs
– Getting The News From Chechnya – The Crackdown On Free Press You May Have Missed
– Aurangzeb, Putin, Realism and a Lesson from History
UPDATES BELOW
Preobrazhensky Court in Moscow authorized the arrest of a native of Tajikistan who was detained this past Monday May 2 in the southwest district of Moscow for possible involvement in preparation of a terrorist attack on the forthcoming Victory Day celebrations May 9, Interfax reported.
Aybek Saidov had been put in custody until July 3, according to the court press secretary, Aleksandra Savelyeva. Savelyeva said Saidov is accused of making an attempt on the life of a member of the law-enforcement agencies (Art. 217 of the Russian Criminal Code) and unlawful possession of a weapon (Art. 222).
Later today the Meshchansky Court press service announced that three more natives of Tajikistan, also accused of possible involvement in a terrorist attack, were also authorized to be taken into custody. Two Kalashnikovs were said to be found on the scene.
Forkhadzhon Muratov, Sirozhidin Ergashev and Anvarzhon Todzhboltayev are to be held until July 3 as well for unlawful possession of weapons.
Authorities are investigating “more than a dozen” detainees during the holiday period in Russia now for possible plans to attack the “Immortal Regiment,” a popular mass parade on Red Square where people carry portraits of their loved ones who served or were killed in World War II.
Twelve migrants from Tajikistan were said to be rounded up in this police sweep who either had jobs as janitors or were unemployed.
According to police sources, the suspect had active communications on social networks with their fellow Tajiks in Turkey and Syria. Information is being checked now about a supposed assignment sent them in Moscow to stage a terrorist attack on Victory Day, which is celebrated as the victory of the Allies in World War II, which is known as the Great Fatherland War in Russia.
Police say they have “reason to believe” that the weapons the Tajik suspects appeared to possess “came from Ukraine” and that they would “thoroughly” study all available materials to determine if terrorist activity in fact took place.
Interfax said it could not confirm this information regarding a possible plan for a terrorist attack.
That disclaimer from a state news agency that dutifully replays most official announcements indicates the case may be shaky.
Some of the migrants were released from custody or deported from Russia, Interfax reported this evening.
A source told Interfax that on Monday, intelligence officers conducted a sweep to detain persons from Central Asia. One man who put up active resistance was wounded apparently in a gunfight and was hospitalized. The two Kalashnikovs were said to be found at this scene. Intelligence agents also reportedly found 7 TNT packets, a brick of plastique used to make bombs, a grenade-launcher, two grenades and the two Kalashnikovs.
The Federal Security Service’s Center for Public Liaison said that citizens from Central Asian countries who had planned a series of terrorist attacks in Moscow during hte May holidays “on assignment from the leaders of international terrorist organizations active in Syria and Turkey”
Interfax said that the FSB “did not report the names and numbers of those detained and also other details of the special operation” — another indicator of the possibly shakiness of the case.
Journalists, even state reporters, have good reason to be skeptical about such police sweeps of Central Asians or Caucasians that are short on details and long on claims.
Despite obvious gaps in the case such as this one, all the defendants were found guilty, and a separate ruling was issued regarding Capt. Shcherbakov requiring that he be investigating for letting terrorists off the hook.
— Catherine A. Fitzpatrick
A growth in the conflict potential has been observed in connection with the growing migration load. The presence of almost 73,000 non-employed refugees from Ukraine complicates the criminal situation.
It’s not clear why Patrushev is focusing on “73,000 from Ukraine” in this message, which could suggest that some either aren’t from the Donbass or have not sufficiently proven their loyalty to the Russian state. Regardless, any large population of unemployed people without roots will be seen by the government as a problem for stability. Yet Russia has added to that population by its continued sponsorship of the war in Ukraine, which has aggravated its economic crisis.
— Catherine A. Fitzpatrick
We don’t know who did this. For sure, this is not related to his professional activity. For sure, this was an acquaintance that Sasha himself let into his apartment.
— Catherine A. Fitzpatrick
NATO is facing a “resurgent Russia striving to project itself as a world power,” Scaparrotti said. Other concerns for the alliance are terrorism, as well as a refugee crisis “being driven by instability in North Africa and the Middle East,” he said.
“To address these challenges, we must continue to maintain and enhance our levels of readiness and our agility in the spirit of being able to fight tonight if deterrence fails,” he said.
[NATO Secretary General Jens] Stoltenberg said NATO has entered a “new era of uncertainty,” with serious and enduring challenges on its eastern and southern flanks. “NATO is ready and up to the challenge,” the secretary general added.
“Today’s challenges have evolved and significantly differ from those of the past,” he said. “Our alliance will need to counter hybrid threats, which can act with little or no warning, and also manifest themselves here ‘at home.”
Finally, if the naysayers still are not convinced of the criticality of this alliance, just look at the headlines. There is an arc of instability and aggression threatening our interests and our allies stretching from the Arctic, through Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and across North Africa. Only the most diehard isolationist could claim that this is not a direct threat to the United States and our interests. Our allies are on the front lines challenging Russian aggression, ungoverned and undergoverned spaces, and the world’s largest migrant crisis since WWII. Russia’s revanchist ambitions and illegal annexation of Crimea have led to the first attempt to change internationally recognized borders by force in Europe since the end of that conflict. Our allies are reacting and engaging. They have been essential in maintaining effective sanctions against the Russians and in ramping up exercises and assurance measures.
“To address these challenges, we must continue to maintain and enhance our levels of readiness and our agility in the spirit of being able to fight tonight if deterrence fails,” he said.
“to be in a state to enter battle even today if deterrence suffers failure.”
Earlier, RIA quoted military expert Konstantin Sokolov who said about the NATO appointment, “If a Russophobe is needed, there will be a Russophobe” and complained about NATO “approaching Russia’s borders” and “building up its potential.”
This a common objection that overlooks Russia’s own aggressive behavior that led East Europeans to seek NATO membership in the first place and its continued provocations against its Baltic and Scandinavian neighbors, not to mention Russia’s launch of the war against Ukraine and continued support of militants there, and its backing of Balshir al-Assad and escalation of the war in Syria.
Nevertheless Sokolov accused NATO instead of planning “some aggressive action,” not only from the Baltics or Ukraine but Afghanistan. He added that the West was using “modern technology” to fight wars, noting that the Soviet Union “was destroyed without tanks and airplanes, and many things were achieved by the symbolic use of military forces” such as “Orange revolutions, the creation of extremist organizations and home-made armed forces.”
In a remark that sounds a lot like what Russia does in southeastern Ukraine, Sokolov accused the West of using such armed proxies to sow chaos, attract people under slogans and get them to fight.
The Kremlin’s complaints about NATO’s aggression follow a long pattern established by decades of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union would invade Hungary or then-Czechoslovakia or Afghanistan, support martial law in Poland or later Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s dictatorship in Belarus, take de facto control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, then annex the Crimea and support commandos taking over administrative buildings in the Donbass, but all the while complain that it was the West increasing its arsenals and behaving aggressively and threatening Russia, the largest country in the world.
In this scenario, various “color” revolutions from the Orange Revolution in Ukraine or the Rose Revolution in Georgia or the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, all related to rebellions against regimes maintained in power by Russia in Russia’s interests are seen as fomented and funded by the West, although the West’s role in these indigenous movements is minor if not irrelevant.
— Catherine A. Fitzpatrick